Thursday, October 7, 2010

I Fear Every Special Report



Last week, a "special news bulletin" interrupted my TV. As they finished showing the special report logo, I said, "Israeli Jets strike Natanz nuclear facility. Iran vows 'limitless retaliation.'" I did this in jest, of course. But on the flip side, I couldn't know if the news break actually was something similar. I think this war will catch many people off-guard (other than people you help me warn about it!). The two most likely scenarios are, like above, an Israeli sneak attack, and also that one of the warships have off of Iran reports that several speedboats attacked them and smacked into the hull.

Of course, Iran has no reason to fire the first shot. They do not want war, nor have they sought war for centuries. That would be why their naval makeup is mostly thousands of speedboats (and these!), with which they can wreak havoc on Western navies and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Their strategy is geared to focus the bulk of their military around their country, and in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Persian Gulf specifically.

After the news break turned out to be a standoff in Florida or something, the person I was with said--paraphrasing--"You're really wishing for this war to break out huh?" This is as crazy as it sounds. I mention it so often because the repercussions of any strike are going to change how we live in a matter of weeks. All out war in the Persian Gulf is going to shut down oil routes. And that's just one problem they can make for us.

I am asked, "So, when's this gonna happen?" Of course this is disingenuous and absurd. The future is unknowable--obviously--so how can I answer such a question?

That humans can't know the future hardly dispels any of the myriad warnings concerning war with Iran. The conditions exist for a massive counterattack by the Iranians to any breach of their sovereignty, with Americans in Afghanistan and Iraq being the prime and most vulnerable target. And that counterattack will in turn be answered by whatever military buildup the Israeli Knesset and US Congress pass. Mass conscription should not be ruled out as the only way to send sufficient forces to battle Iran.

An energy price crisis will petrify the global economy as fuel costs make long-distance trade unfeasible.

There are Shia populations in the Saudi Arabian oil fields and also in Pakistan. They will not like their cousins being bombed over nothing. Indeed, how could this violence be contained? You are aware I'm sure that Pakistan and India have nuclear weapons. India will be watching the Shia uprising carefully for the continued security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. If it is breached, India may act. And that's how the war goes East.

There exists a shadowy branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard separate from Guard's Army, Navy, and Air Force (themselves separate from the regular military), this special forces unit reports directly to the Iranian Supreme Leader. They are so secretive that their estimated numbers range from 3,000-50,000. Known as the Quds (Jerusalem) Force, they are tasked with the protection of the Islamic Revolution around the world, they are widely--if not loudly--acknowledged as one of the best trained, highly skilled, and most ideologically committed commando units in the world. In a discussion recently, John Doe scoffed at me and the idea of the Quds Force being, well, a force to reckon with. But this is not what we find. I can find only acknowledgment of their capabilities and reach.

I also feel obliged to point out that 19 thugs vaulted America into two insane wars. Even if Quds was totally incompetent, it has at least 3,000 thugs. But they are quite competent, and so all the more frightening.

As their countrymen kill occupation soldiers and disrupt commerce in the entire world. these commandos will likely be immediately tasked with smuggling themselves into the United States and and causing chaos. 3,000 (at least) brilliant, skilled, stealthy pissed off Iranians running around the nation. Why would they not? They operate all over the world.

Of course I cannot answer the ridiculous and too often mocking/dismissive question "When will this all happen?" Understand that this question is irrational. But what is most certainly rational is to look at the conditions that exist today. This is a precarious time. The United States is spread around the world and a debt crisis will topple our economy one way or another. And this war will only accellerate the demise, along with killing millions. This danger will exist until the American military withdraws from the region. More likely, however, we will be removed.

So to those wondering "when?"... I can think of only one response: Any moment.

2 comments:

  1. I agree entirely with your conviction that attacking Iran would be wrong and counterproductive, but I doubt very much that such an attack is inevitable, or even likely.

    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3653927,00.html

    Bush was approached by Israel about airstrikes on Iran, and he refused, opting for covert attempts to keep Iran from getting nuclear supplies. Neither Bush nor Obama have complete control over the military, so it stands to reason that the Pentagon didn't want it to happen then, and it's fairly certain that they haven't become any more friendly to the idea since then, since, as you point out, it would be a disaster.

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  2. Indeed, there is an internal struggle, for the very reason that this war is manifest lunacy.

    ---Neither Bush nor Obama have complete control over the military, so it stands to reason that the Pentagon didn't want it to happen then, and it's fairly certain that they haven't become any more friendly to the idea since
    ...
    It isn't the Pentagon that will make the decision though. As I pointed out, it will be the Israelis or some kind of Persian Gulf Incident.
    There is no way to stop the Iranians once this happens. Thousands of American troops are going to start dying.
    At that point, the matter will be given to Congress: total war and a draft.
    Therefore, the challenge of the doves and realists is to keep the upper hand at all times, since it will take two hours and 5 Israeli jets to change the world.
    Any Pentagon officials who urge restraint against the slaughter of American troops will likely be dismissed.
    I appreciate and acknowledge that most officeholders in the US and Israel may not want this war. But there are maniacs who do and they are powerful.
    Skiers and mountain-climbers don't want avalanches, but there is no stopping them once they start.

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